Ottawa, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

139
FXUS63 KTOP 261127
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather continues today, and most likely Wednesday as
well.

- Daily rain chances are forecast Thursday through the weekend,
although severe weather risks are low.

- Near average temperatures are forecast Thursday through early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows an amplifying upper
trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, another shortwave ejecting
out of it near the Four Corners, and another still weaker shortwave
moving north from northeast TX. All of these features look to have
some impact on our sensible weather over the coming week. For today,
the wave from TX looks to weaken as it slowly moves north through OK
and into the Ozarks. As such, CAMs largely keep scattered convection
well south of the area into OK and southwest MO this afternoon and
evening. This seems reasonable with soundings not showing much in
the way of lift, and lapse rates looking modest with what
instability is available. Heading into Wednesday, moisture quality
improves somewhat with slightly better instability, and there
appears to be a somewhat better source of meaningful forcing with
the next shortwave approaching. However, this has been trending
later in the day Wednesday, leading to mostly dry conditions for the
majority of the area for most of the day. Can`t rule out a few
isolated showers or storms mainly along/south of I-70 late in the
afternoon, but greater coverage is favored towards south central KS.
Other than that outside rain chance and conditions looking a bit
more humid Wednesday, weather should be similar Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 80s and light southeast to east winds.

The moisture axis moves overhead Thursday along with the upper
trough axis shearing out Thursday night into Friday. This is the
time period that features the highest PoPs in the forecast period,
but these have lowered considerably from just 24 hours ago. Although
this appears to be the time frame when forcing and moisture line up
the best, the weakening system lowers confidence in widespread
rainfall, so it is entirely possible that some locations miss out.
With weak flow and shear in place, still not anticipating severe
weather, and rain amounts look light enough to keep flooding
concerns low as well.

By the weekend, it remains uncertain how long this weak sheared out
troughing pattern will stay overhead, as the larger trough to our
west looks to weaken and pivot northeast across the Rockies. This
may result in some shortwave energy hanging around the region into
the weekend, which keeps low PoPs into the weekend. This looks
diurnally driven with instability peaking with daytime heating and
CIN increasing after sunset. Outside of these hit or miss showers
and storms, temperatures should hover near average for late May with
highs near 80 degrees and lows near 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR continues with SE winds looking to remain mostly under 10 kts
with the exception of MHK, which looks to reach slightly above that
for a few hours this afternoon. Can`t rule out some shallow, patchy
ground fog at TOP closer to sunrise Wednesday with more moisture in
the boundary layer, but think it`s too early to have enough
confidence for mention in TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha